Cycle lanes and priorities evidence on performance

Evidence on performance

Case Study 1 : Variety of Measures That Have Lead to an Increase in Cycling Levels in Europe and the UK

The results below demonstrate that cities which have a dense cycle network (cycle facilities of up to one third of all roads), have achieved substantial increases in cycling levels. It is notable that success has been achieved in a variety of cities with a range of climates, land use densities and topographies.

Positive impacts of cycling initiatives in Europe and the UK

City	Measures	Outcome
Hanover	450km cycle routes (on a total of 1,360km roads), 120 20mph zones, cycle parking service points in the city centre	Share of cycling trips up from 9% (1979) to 16% (1990) 78% increase
Munster	£24m programme for upgrading old cycle routes, 340km of cycle routes (on a total of 600 to 700km roads), 3,300 parking spaces at the station, hire fleet of 300 bikes, 7 Park+Ride sites	Share of cycling trips up from 29% (1981) to 43% (1992) 48% increase
Munich	Cycle route network of 700km (out of a total of 2,300km roads), further 200km planned within completion of 16 radial and 2 circular routes, 22,000 cycle parking spaces are available and an increase at rail stations is planned	Share of cycling trips up from 4% (1980) to 13% (2002). 225% increase
Zurich	Cycle route network of 246km (out of a total of 737km roads), one-way streets opened to two-way cycling during the last 10 years	Share of cycling trips up from 7% (1981) to 11% (2001) 57% increase
Graz	Cycle promotion programme. 220km of cycle routes (on a total of 600 to 700km roads), cycle parking at public transport links. 770km of streets in 20mph zones	Share of cycling trips up from 7% (1979) to 17% (1999) 143% increase
Vienna	Cycle route network extended from 200km in 1991 to 900km in 2002 (out of a total of 2,730km roads). Most important measures: completion of network, closing gaps, opening one-way streets and 20mph zones. £13m spent between 1986 and 1999	Share of cycling trips up from 1.5% (1991) to 4.5% (2001) 180% increase
Leicester	Cycle maps with information about 500 miles of recommended routes, 60 miles cycleways, secure parking facilities combined with information and repair centres	54% increase in number of cyclists crossing city central cordon between 1989 and 1995
Hull	Local cycling strategy, cycle network of 90km (£2m programme), 90 areas with 20mph speed limit	14% of all journeys to work are by bike
York	Opening of Millennium Bridge with cycling facilities in 2001	Number of cyclists crossing the river increased by 17%

Source: TfL/CCE internet and literature survey 2003

Impact on Objectives

Objective	Comment
	Significant increases in cycling levels reported in all cases are likely to represent an improvement in transport efficiency, especially in the longer term. However, there is insufficient evidence to conclude with any certainty whether or not they justify the cost.
	No direct evidence is given on mode shift but it is probable that some transfer from car has occurred. If this is indeed the case then it will have contributed to an improvement in liveability. Irrespective of transfer from car, the increased levels of cycling are likely to slow car traffic and so improve amenity.
	No direct evidence presented, but the likely reductions in car use will have contributed to a reduction in environmental impacts.
	No direct evidence presented, but the improved acceptability and viability of cycling will benefit some of those who are socially excluded.
	No direct evidence presented, but evidence from European countries and in particular Denmark and the Netherlands suggest that increases in levels of cycling reduce both the absolute number of accidents and the number of accidents per kilometre travelled.
	No direct evidence presented, but evidence from elsewhere suggests that the improved levels of fitness and health associated with the increased level of cycling will lead to significant productivity benefits and reduced health care costs. This may in turn contribute to economic growth.
	The cost of the infrastructure is significant and reduced PT revenue due to transfer from PT is a further issue. A further impact will be reduced tax revenue from car use.

Case Study 2 : Business Case and Evaluation of the Impacts of Cycling in London (Draft) , Cycling Centre of Excellence, TfL, January 2004

TfL have carried out a business case and evaluation of the impacts of cycling in London which aims to summarise the costs and benefits of three scenarios of cycling investment over the next six years. The three scenarios cover a range of proposed measures:

Introduction of the new London Cycle Network Plus (LCN+), which is projected to lead to 50,000 to 150,000 additional cycle trips per day in London.
Additional junction treatments, with those in place already having improved cycle safety.
Cycle parking schemes on street, at schools, homes, workplaces and interchanges, which could lead to 40,000 to 340,000 additional trips per day.
Cycle training schemes which according to results from schemes in place and survey results could increase cycling levels by 5000 to 26,000 trips per day.
Promotional activities such as cycle events, cycle maps and provision of information. Survey results and the effects of existing expenditure suggest that such measures are important in reinforcing the benefits of infrastructure measures.

The three expenditure scenarios analysed range from an expenditure of £57 million for scenario A, £147 million for scenario B and £202 million for scenario C. The three levels of investment are expected to lead to 90,000, 240,000 and 450,000 additional trips per day respectively, which represents an increase in cycling of 30%, 80% or 150% by 2010. The appraisal period is for 25 years with an annual discount rate of 3.5%.

Summary of benefits for the three expenditure scenarios

Increased road safety with an estimated reduction in cycle casualties of 5% to 20% (20 to 90 killed or seriously injured cyclists each year) according to the extent of the LCN+ junction treatments and cycle training. Benefits of £4 million to £16 million per annum.
Travel time reductions of up to 30 seconds per kilometre due to LCN+ and junction treatments are expected to give benefits of £4 million to £6 million per year (all cycle trips given the value of time of 11.9 4p per minute).
Decongestion benefits for other road users due to mode shift from buses to cycling (reduced operating cost) will lead to benefits of £2 million to £8 million a year. Benefits for mode shift from tube or car journeys are not included although the analysis suggests a reduction in car trips of 23,000 - 110,000 with a similar reduction for tube trips.
Short-term absence from work is estimated to reduce by 6% due to increased physical activity. Benefits between £1 million and £7 million a year are included.
Wider health benefits such as the reduction in coronary heart disease, stroke and colon cancer prevents between three and 16 early deaths a year, resulting in benefits of £4 million to £20 million per year (this element of the methodology is subject to further discussions).
Reduced external costs through reductions in the air and noise pollution are taken into account. Mode shift from car to cycling is assumed to give around 9 pence per kilometre, leading to benefits of £2 million to £10 million per year.
Reduced car parking costs for employers due to transfer from commuting by car to cycling. Because of the lack of detailed data, this is not included in the analysis.
Comfort improvement benefits through safer conditions and the better connected network are not included in the analysis due to a lack of UK evidence.

Summary of projected costs and benefits for the three expenditure scenarios, 2003 prices discounted at 3.5% per annum, 25 year appraisal period

Benefit cost ratio of the three expenditure scenarios

Impact on Objectives (scenario B, proposed programme. All figures given are the present value for total benefits over the appraisal period)

Objective	Comment
	Travel time savings for cyclists, and reduced crowding benefits for bus users are included in the analysis and in combination provide benefits of £106 million. Impacts on car drivers and Tube travellers are not included.
	The reductions in car use and the traffic-calming associated with the London cycle network will contribute to a liveability improvement which is included under "reduced external costs" and amounts to £70.6 million.
	The reductions in car use will contribute to a reduction in environmental impacts which are also included under "reduced external costs".
	The increased viability of cycling as an alternative for increasing numbers of people will benefit the less wealthy and socially excluded, these benefits do not form part of the analysis presented.
	There are projected to be significant safety benefits which amount to a reduction in accidents worth £94 million.
	Travel time savings for cyclists and bus users amount to £106 million. Short-term absence reduction and health benefits to the wider economy amount to a further £176.7 million. These economic benefits alone amount to £282 million which in themselves provide a benefit cost ratio of 1.61. Furthermore, the proportion of the accident savings also represents the economic impact of accidents so further strengthening the economic impact of the proposed programme.
	Costs are significant for a programme of this scale across the whole of London, although significantly less than a city wide transport network for any other mode except walking. For example, at £176 million for the proposed programme, the cost is significantly less than that for the construction of a single light rail line.

Case Study 3: Impacts of Specific New Cycling Schemes in London (Business Case for Cycling in London (Draft), TfL, 2004)

The table below gives examples of the impacts on levels of cycling of individual new cycling schemes in London.

The impacts of individual new cycling schemes in London on cycle flows

Survey responses of cyclists using individual new cycling schemes at four sites in London

Impact on Objectives

Objective	Comment
	The results show that the individual schemes have had a significant impact on cycling levels locally. The survey results suggest that the majority of cyclists have had their journey time improved and also that an average of 31% of those cycling previously went by car. It is likely that these changes represent an increase in transport efficiency.
	The measures themselves and the resulting increased levels of cycling are likely to reduce traffic speeds and volumes so improving liveability.
	The reductions in car use will have contributed to a reduction in environmental impacts.
	The increased viability of cycling as an alternative for increasing numbers of people will benefit the less wealthy and socially excluded.
	Perceived levels of safety have increased significantly, also increased levels of cycling invariably lead to reduced accident rates per kilometre.
	Due to the transfer from private car there will be decongestion benefits leading to increased productivity. There are likely to be further economic benefits through improved health which reduces absenteeism and health care costs.
	Costs are not given but there is clearly a negative financial impact.

Case Study 4: Cost Benefit Analysis of a Potential Danish Bicycle Promotion Scheme (Cycling Will Improve Environment and Health, Ege & Krag 2005)

The cost benefit analysis of a Danish bicycle promotion scheme was carried out. The following assumptions were made:

A 50% increase in the levels of cycling in Denmark associated with a 30% increase in walking;
the increase will be reached in 12 years through improved infrastructure and marketing activities;
50% of the new cycle and pedestrian kilometres are assumed to come from public transport with the other 50% from car driving;
the appraisal period is 50 years (as prescribed in the official Danish manual for cost benefit analysis in the transport sector);
costs of infrastructure and marketing have been taken from experience in Copenhagen and Odense; and
the authors claim to have used conservative estimates for health benefits based on experiences from abroad.

The benefit cost ratio is approximately 1.8 to 1. Because the vast majority of costs are due to a loss of tax and public transport revenue the positive cost-benefit ratio is capable of withstanding a significant reduction in behavioural response or a major increase in infrastructure and campaign costs.

Note: "wrench losses" refer to the inefficiencies of the market distortions associated with the required increase in taxation due to infrastructure construction/campaigns, loss of PT revenue and reduced car tax.

Impact on Objectives

Objective	Comment
	User benefits due to transfer from private car significantly outweigh the costs involved.
	The benefit component "external costs" would be formed in part by liveability. External costs are not a major component of the benefits but at approximately €0.5 billion it is still significant and would reflect an improvement in liveability.
	External costs are shown to reduce by approximately €0.5 billion which reflects a transfer from car and a benefit to the environment in terms of local and global air pollution.
	The increased viability of cycling as an alternative for increasing numbers of people will benefit the less wealthy and socially excluded.
	Safety benefits do not appear to have been included in the analysis. This may be because cycling in Denmark is already possibly safer than in any other country. Increased cycling levels are none the less likely to improve safety still further.
	Health benefits will improve productivity and reduce health-care costs. Transfer from car by reducing congestion will also improve productivity. These impacts may increase economic growth. On the other hand a loss in PT revenues and taxes on car use may necessitate an increase in taxation which may stifle growth. The net effect is likely to be positive however.
	Impact on public transport operator revenues and taxes is very significant. It is notable that infrastructure and marketing represents only a small proportion of the total costs associated with the project.